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OEM Report: Aerospace

End User Report: Boom without the bust

By Gretchen Salois

Outlook remains bright as demand continues upward

January 2020 - The aerospace sector is a not a fast-paced up and down industry. The longer economic cycles within the industry are buoyed by extended product life cycles and high barriers to entry. The current industry upswing may slow but it will continue to climb, a departure from what might typically result in a 30 percent or more bust cycle.

“We’re near the 15-year marker of what typically is a seven-year boom cycle—and I don’t see a bust cycle following it any time soon,” says Richard Aboulafia, vice president, analysis, Teal Group Corp., Fairfax, Virginia.

Part of the steady investment in aerospace includes years-long military contracts, which include orders for well established fighter jets and helicopters such as F-15, F-18 and A64 Apache. “These aircraft have been around since the Jimmy Carter era—while there are improvements in avionics and weapons, airframes are on a plateau,” he says.

For a company managing both commercial and military clients, Boeing’s outlook is “in good shape, but there are big concerns about its middle-market presence. Boeing jetliner success, coupled with Lockheed Martin’s F-35 and broad U.S. defense export market dominance, means good things for the U.S.’s share of the industry,” according to Aboulafia’s report for Teal Group’s World Military & Civil Aircraft Briefing, published in September 2019.

Delivery schedules

According to Boeing’s third-quarter 2019 performance review report, commercial aviation will continue to strengthen in the long-term with a “20-year commercial market outlook of 44,040 airplanes and growth opportunities over a 10-year period at $3.1 trillion [in the aerospace] services market.”

Boeing is focused on returning the 737 Max safely to service after two crashes killed more than 300 people in October 2018 and March 2019.

During its quarterly earnings conference call Oct. 30, Airbus reported that it targets around 860 commercial aircraft deliveries in 2019, allowing it to maintain its expected increase in pre-tax income of 15 percent compared to 2018. It plans to “ramp up the A320neo, including growth in its Airbus Cabin Flex plane model, and expects to see margins on its A350 craft improve.

“Airbus expects the world economy and air traffic to grow in line with prevailing independent forecasts, which assume no major disruptions,” according to company projections.

Efforts to ensure catastrophes like those in Africa and Indonesia do not happen again continue. The Federal Aviation Administration now wants to overhaul how it certifies planes after its safety approval of Boeing’s 737 Max. The agency previously outsourced those tasks to the aircraft manufacturers themselves, including Boeing.

The actual strategy necessary to accomplish improved oversight isn’t as easy to establish. “You can believe there should be more industry oversight by the government, or you can follow the Trump administration’s deregulatory mantra where you promise to destroy two government rules for each new one created,” Aboulafia says. “It’s fine to believe either, but only an idiot can believe both.”  FFJ

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Company Profiles

AIR FILTRATION

IRONWORKERS

NESTING SOFTWARE

SERVICE CENTERS

Camfil APC - Equipment Trilogy Machinery Inc. Metamation Inc. Admiral Steel
Camfil APC - Replacement Filters

LASER TECHNOLOGY

PLASMA TECHNOLOGY

Alliance Steel
Donaldson Company Inc. AMADA AMERICA, INC. Messer Cutting Systems Inc.

SOFTWARE

BENDING/FOLDING

Mazak Optonics Corp.

PLATE

Enmark Systems Inc.
MetalForming Inc. MC Machinery Systems Inc. Peddinghaus Lantek Systems Inc.
RAS Systems LLC Murata Machinery, USA, Inc.

PLATE & ANGLE ROLLS

SigmaTEK Systems LLC

BEVELING

TRUMPF Inc. Davi Inc. Striker Systems
Steelmax Tools LLC

LINEAR POSITION SENSORS

Trilogy Machinery Inc.

STAMPING/PRESSES

COIL PROCESSING

MTS Sensors

PRESS BRAKE TOOLING

AIDA-America Corp.
Bradbury Group

MATERIAL HANDLING

Mate Precision Tooling

STEEL

Burghardt + Schmidt Group Fehr Warehouse Solutions Inc. Rolleri USA Alliance Steel
Butech Bliss UFP Industrial

PRESS BRAKES

TUBE & PIPE

Red Bud Industries

MEASUREMENT & QUALITY CONTROL

AMADA AMERICA, INC. BLM Group
Tishken Advanced Gauging Technologies Automec Inc. Prudential Stainless & Alloys

CONVEYOR SYSTEMS

METAL FABRICATION MACHINERY

MC Machinery Systems Inc.

WATERJET

Mayfran International Cincinnati Inc. SafanDarley Barton International

DEBURRING/FINISHING

LVD Strippit

PUNCHING

Flow International Corporation
ATI Industrial Automation Scotchman Industries Inc. Hougen Manufacturing Jet Edge Waterjet Systems
Lissmac Corp. Trilogy Machinery Inc.

SAWING

WELDING

Osborn

METAL FORMING

Behringer Saws Inc. American Weldquip
SuperMax Tools FAGOR Arrasate USA Inc. Cosen Saws Strong Hand Tools
Timesavers MetalForming Inc. DoALL Sawing T. J. Snow Company

HYDRAULIC PRESSES

MICROFINISHING TOOLS

HE&M Saw

 

Beckwood Press Co. Titan Tool Supply Inc. Savage Saws

 

Triform

 

 

 


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